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Sunday, December 31, 2017

Portfolio Management in 2017

I had a book called "Intelligent Investor" from 2015 but couldn't get time to read it. Due to which my portfolio get good punishment in till the end of 2016. Here are the stats
  • Started investing from July 2015
  • Till Dec 2016. If my invested amount was x, it's market value was 0.9x
  • Means I was in overall loss of 10%.
  • Started reading investing books from Jan 2017.
  • After much juggling here are the stats after a year ie at the end Dec 2017.

    • Total amount invested, Y =1.8x
    • Total current market value= 2.25x (1.23Y)
    • Total dividends recvd      =  3.3% of x (1.8 % of Y=3.3% of yearly return)
    • Total profit booked          =8.6% of x   (4.7 % of Y=9% of yearly return)
    • Total profit perceived      =23%+1.8%+4.7%=29.5% of Y =34% of yearly return


As you can see this year I started with -10% return at the start of year to +30% overall return at the end of year. This may be a luck or hard work, I don't know. But I surely know one thing that "At the start of year I gave a target to myself that my portfolio's dividend should be around saving account's interest given by bank. And see I am pretty close to it. This 3.3% vs 3.5%. Where as you have to give 10% tax on saving account interest while dividends are tax free. If you give tax on 3.5% then effectively interest earned by saving account would be 3.15% which is less than what I earned in dividends. This was what wanted from my portfolio and I am happy to get it.

The purpose of this article is motivate people to come to financial knowledge. I am not suggesting to jump into share market by reading few books unless you want to keep track of your portfolio by yourself. Share market has been historically beaten inflation as well as Fixed deposit income. If you want to dive into it. Then I would prefer you to start with mutual funds. I have taken some mutual funds which gave me return more or less than mine. So why take the burden on yourself, study few mutual funds and start with small amount. Take long term approach in the share/equity market.

And last but not the least- Keep learning.

Saturday, August 26, 2017

God A.I. and Humans

There is a question which is centuries old and still asked by many. The question is- "Is there any God? If yes, does he cares about us?"

The same question was asked me to myself several times. To get the answer, I started digging many old and new books- From scientific books like "the theory of everything by Stephens Hawkin" to religious books like Bhagwad Geeta,Quran and Bible.

As you can imagine, finding this answer is not straight forward. I keep searching for this. Then one day I started comparing A.I. to the human mind. In normal case one would try to compare A.I. advancement while keeping human mind as base. I did the comparison in reverse way. Means, I kept the A.I. advancement as base and compared human mind with it.

A.I. enables us to feed the data and it gives output only based on previous experience or predefined rules. A.I. can also help find the pattern out of scattered data. A.I. usually has multiple stages through which data passes and get transformed, one stage's output feed data to next stage as input. This process can be reversed to get interesting results too.

Doesn't our human mind works like this, actually A.I. tries to mimic to human brain. Am I making any sense?

A.I. improves with number of iterations or say time so does human. If we code to penalise A.I. for its mistakes it will learn from mistakes so does human.

So what is a perfect A.I. - which can take situational decisions without being biased and without taking external help. How much time we can take to built such perfect A.I. - that's debatable. My prediction is never for a generic A.I. . Although we can create A.I. for specific tasks but creating a generic A.I - I will wait and watch.

My question to myself was - Can God program such a perfect A.I.? God can do anything right? Thus he created us(human mind per se) which is an example of perfect A.I.

The best thing about perfect AI is that it doesn’t need changes to its program to reach a sensible output in a changed condition.

Take example of Tesla autonomous driving as an example- in its earlier phase people find it buggy to take decision by itself. Turns and lane changing were not smooth. But even without software update it got better.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/01/tesla-autopilot-model-s-crash-how-does-it-work

Similarly human makes mistake, God is not here to guide us - what to do next? We have to figure it out by ourselves. And as we know God makes no mistakes - he has given us inherit capabilities to learn and guide ourself in almost every condition. If you get hurt physically, you learn to avoid the same mistake. Simple!

So there is a God who built us so beautifully that we can guide can ourself to achieve anything. Buddha, Muhammad and Mahavir got their learning and lessons by themselves and tried to make this world a better place to live in.

Eventually, we can do the same. We need not to follow what our traditions and religions say. Following those only fall in supervised learning, which is not a big deal to code. What matters is - unsupervised learning, we are built for that. If we used to follow what is said before- there would no no new inventions. Take any modern product and show it to 200 year old guy - he would say all these inventions as magic or trick. This is the beauty of our human mind that we can think what other haven't thought of till date. Take Einstein as  an example - " His special theory of relativity" was a matter of debate that. He thought of himself and today we are just enough capable of proving his various theories through experiment because at that these experiment were not possible.

https://www.wired.com/2017/06/physicists-find-another-gravitational-wave-prove-einstein-right/

God probably is busy doing some other stuffs than monitoring our human life every once here and there. If he has not created the best version of A.I., he would have launched A.I. V2.0 long back then- you never know which version you are. As God is the perfect maker - I don't think he need to maintain any version. Otherwise, versioning is itself a complicated tool. But do you think God has made a mistake so he needs to bring version V2.0?? Not, right??

I believe in him. He created us directly the best version and revolution and evolution lies within us. It is our capabilities what we want to learn and achieve from this infinite universe.

Remember, you can be Tesla - driven by itself or a Chevy - driven by some human. [Sorry Chevy I have to take your name till you reach a good level of AI].


Sunday, April 9, 2017

Rehauling Higher Education in India

We know that current state of higher education in India is not in top form. Here are some points which I want to highlight..
*** Current Scenario
1. Theory based University Education.
2. More weight-age to theoretical papers.
3. Poor Infrastructure.
4. Severe negligence to intelligent students who are very good a particular subject not in all subject.
5. Lack of experienced teacher in terms of industrial exposure.
6. Government funding is not sufficient or funding is mismanaged.
7. Syllabus is not upto-date. 
8. Student feedback system is absent or not known.
9. NPTEL course material is good enough but not known to all university.
10. Some university sessions run late due to which a degree course takes more time than required.
*** What can be done::
1. Training of faculty members to
1.1 update about current industrial standards
1.2 update about current industrial trends
1.3 appreciate the efforts of students who want to go beyond the syllabus and want to invent/develop something.
1.4 having proper practical knowledge of subject.
1.5 conduct workshops relevant to their majors
2. Time to time inter university or Intra- University initiatives, competitions and workshops
3. Universities should have special fund to invest in an idea or project if found promising.
4. Proper infrastructure so that students can do their hands-on effectively and efficiently.
5. Keeping the practical tool updated: e.g: TurboC is still used in universities whereas it's support has been withdrawn from 2009. Similarly Adobe Flash is going to be absolute so there is no need to put efforts in learning that.
6. Although arrangement of guest faculties is norm in universities/colleges, but still not very popular form of teaching. We can do this arrangement for specific topics instead of subject specific.
7. Free availability of research papers are available for few universities only, government can make some arrangements that small colleges and universities get same kind of benefits also.
8. In every universities we can have an IP(Intellectual Property) Panel, which help to expedite to get patents for the innovations done by students during their college term.
9. Government can put some incentive program for universities who keep on publishing new research papers. This will increase competitive environment.

Monday, March 20, 2017

Investment mistakes I made and how I corrected it

I was a Doordarshan guy, ummm ... rather, I am still a Doordarshan guy. Since my childhood whenever I used to see news there was stock news on a daily basis. I couldn't understand how it worked. But, the only thing I knew that we gamble in it and we can earn or lose the money quickly there.

But anyway, I was curious about it and I was sure I will enter into it someday. When I started or rather before starting I made some big mistakes, like

  1. I was sure I will start investing in it, but when ? This was not decided, this is where I failed miserably. I should have started just after job joining i.e. Nov 2011. Rather I started in July 2015. I have taken some sample stocks I invested in 6 months after July 2015. So, I have taken an example of average price from May 2012(which I missed) and Jan 2016 after 6 months from July 2016. So if you notice due to delay, I have to spend almost 70% more on same stocks. If I factor inflation and my stock weightage, I have paid around 80% more money for the same stocks. In reverse way you can think that if I would have started investing around Dec 2011. My profit would have been more than 80% till Jan 2016. Moral: Start as early as possible and invest regularly.

    May 2012
    Jan 2016
    Increased Cost %
    Adani 46 85 84.78
    Apollo 67 140 108.96
    Arvind Mills 75 313 317.33
    boi 300 100 -66.67
    CG 130 130 0.00
    cipla 300 600 100.00
    grasim 500 734 46.80
    HDFC Bank 500 1050 110.00
    IndiaBulls 200 720 260.00
    Infosys 600 1150 91.67
    ITC 160 203 26.88
    JP Associate 70 9 -87.14
    JK Tyre 15 120 700.00
    Mohit Indus 40 60 50.00
    MOIL 271 217 -19.93
    Morepen 3 37 1133.33
    Muthoot 123 193 56.91
    NMDC 164 93 -43.29
    Pidilite 171 555 224.56
    Powergrid 100 140 40.00
    Rallis 113 172 52.21
    REC 108 92 -14.81
    SCI 58 91 56.90
    SIB 22.1 19.1 -13.57
    SBI 190 209 10.00
    TataMo 301 370 22.92
    TVS 39 281 620.51
    Total 4666.1 7883.1 68.94
  2. Not having financial knowledge before investing. If you want to invest in equities for long term then you must have some knowledge beforehand. This was my second biggest mistake. If you analyse the above portfolio the P/E is close to 25. This is what exactly Benjamin Graham is put as a upper level. So I am still at high risk. And all this happened because the book "The Intelligent Investor" was sitting idle on shelf when I started investing. Moral: If you want to invest in equity by yourself read some investment books and do some dummy trading/investment. See the graph what happens when you invest without knowledge. More down than up. 
  3. Ignored the value of SIP and mutual funds. I knew that I am not good enough to know market. Despite this fact I didn't go SIP route initially. This was because I never had someone who recommended it and those quick ads like "Mutual Funds are subjected to market risk and blah blah. " This kept me away from it till long time and missed golden opportunity to make some money. Moral:  Start investing in mutual funds through if you are not an expert.
  4. Going after quantity instead of quality. Although this point can be covered under point No. 2. But I find it a separate issue. There may be chances that you can find a great stock with high price tag and low P/E and a good enough stock at pretty low price per stock but at high P/E. Moral: Don't go after quantity rather invest in quality but make sure you don't pay a premium price i.e. higher P/E. Like if I would have invested in MRF in Mar2012 @10k.  Today's value is close to 56k and at this price P/E is still under 16. Having lots of penny stocks is no good.
  5. This 5th point is actually the first point, the mistake I made was - purchasing an endowment life insurance plan, in which I was able to get double the return in 15 years which was accumulated in those 15 years. This sounded reasonable at that time whereas I was not able to calculate the return percentage for the same. Let's talk about the figures- I paid around 260000  and returned the policy in 4 years, if I had done some SIPs or even bank's RD it would become 4 lakh and 3.5 lakhs respectively. But I returned the policy and got only 160000. My overall loss is around 200000. Again around 80%  of loss :( . Moral: Don't go for endowment insurance plan, its returns are pretty poor and your money remains stuck with your insurer. Keep an SIP or RD for investments.
  6. Not having stop loss on my investments. This was one of the early days mistakes for which my portfolio is showing losses. Always put stop loss according to your risk appetite and companies fundamentals so that your hard earned money doesn't go waste.
These are a few mistakes made till date, however I tried to correct it one by one as soon as I realised them. Here are course correction steps:
  1. Completed reading few investment books before investing much. ("The Little Book That Beats the Market" and "The Intelligent Investor"). See my portfolio vs benchmark report as of now. 
  2. Started few SIPs.
  3. Invested in quality stocks. (Read large cap and Companies with strong fundamentals).
  4. I keep buying stocks at regular interval (averaging) and especially at dips like Brexit and Demonetization.
  5. Tried to lower brokerage charge by buying in bulk.
  6. If  you have quality share, don't book profit from selling all the it. Book only to take out the 50-60% of capital invested in that particular share . 
  7. Booked profit in the Bulls run. When market gives you profit of 30-40% in a month or two. 
  8. Keep listening some market experts and matched their suggestions with my existing knowledge and then deciding what to do.
  9. Diversified my portfolio through investing in different sectors.
Learn here ..how to start investing 

declaimer : "I am a fairly new investor(less than 2 years old in market), so my view will be fairly limited to my experience of market as well as studies done by me.